Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 141,450
2 Rhode Island 140,338
3 South Dakota 138,748
4 Utah 124,238
5 Tennessee 122,231
6 Arizona 118,781
7 Iowa 115,924
8 Nebraska 113,846
9 Wisconsin 113,746
10 Oklahoma 113,438
11 South Carolina 112,803
12 New Jersey 112,696
13 Arkansas 111,394
14 Indiana 107,952
15 Delaware 107,897
16 Alabama 107,845
17 Kansas 106,996
18 Illinois 106,179
19 New York 105,660
20 Idaho 105,256
21 Mississippi 104,967
22 Florida 104,566
23 Minnesota 102,920
24 Nevada 102,669
25 Montana 102,181
26 Georgia 101,642
27 Wyoming 100,715
28 Kentucky 100,438
29 Massachusetts 100,360
30 Texas 100,064
31 Louisiana 98,808
32 Missouri 98,253
33 Connecticut 95,516
34 California 94,834
35 Michigan 94,615
36 New Mexico 94,605
37 North Carolina 93,550
38 Alaska 92,778
39 Ohio 92,051
40 Pennsylvania 90,888
41 Colorado 89,852
42 West Virginia 86,045
43 Virginia 77,549
44 Maryland 74,383
45 New Hampshire 70,239
46 District of Columbia 67,875
47 Washington 53,730
48 Puerto Rico 52,184
49 Maine 46,192
50 Oregon 44,318
51 Vermont 37,112
52 Hawaii 23,349

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 304
2 Minnesota 267
3 Delaware 226
4 Maine 217
5 Colorado 213
6 West Virginia 200
7 Florida 191
8 Pennsylvania 190
9 Washington 182
10 Illinois 178
11 Puerto Rico 168
12 Oregon 164
13 New York 156
14 New Hampshire 151
15 Rhode Island 151
16 Indiana 149
17 New Jersey 141
18 South Carolina 138
19 North Carolina 135
20 Massachusetts 133
21 North Dakota 126
22 Alaska 124
23 Connecticut 122
24 Maryland 116
25 Missouri 114
26 Vermont 110
27 Ohio 105
28 Georgia 104
29 New Mexico 101
30 District of Columbia 97
31 Iowa 96
32 Arizona 95
33 Utah 95
34 Kentucky 93
35 Tennessee 92
36 Wisconsin 92
37 Virginia 91
38 Montana 86
39 Nevada 86
40 Texas 85
41 Wyoming 85
42 Idaho 69
43 Hawaii 68
44 Nebraska 68
45 Alabama 58
46 Kansas 57
47 Mississippi 56
48 Louisiana 54
49 Arkansas 48
50 Oklahoma 47
51 California 43
52 South Dakota 32

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,883
2 New York 2,667
3 Massachusetts 2,559
4 Rhode Island 2,527
5 Mississippi 2,421
6 Arizona 2,382
7 Connecticut 2,275
8 Louisiana 2,235
9 South Dakota 2,226
10 Alabama 2,225
11 Pennsylvania 2,056
12 North Dakota 2,001
13 Indiana 1,983
14 New Mexico 1,942
15 Illinois 1,924
16 Arkansas 1,904
17 Michigan 1,893
18 Iowa 1,888
19 South Carolina 1,849
20 Georgia 1,846
21 Nevada 1,776
22 Tennessee 1,772
23 Texas 1,741
24 Kansas 1,726
25 Oklahoma 1,715
26 Delaware 1,669
27 Ohio 1,649
28 Florida 1,643
29 California 1,574
30 District of Columbia 1,567
31 Missouri 1,507
32 West Virginia 1,498
33 Kentucky 1,486
34 Montana 1,472
35 Maryland 1,455
36 Wisconsin 1,299
37 Minnesota 1,286
38 Virginia 1,266
39 Nebraska 1,225
40 Wyoming 1,221
41 North Carolina 1,212
42 Idaho 1,149
43 Colorado 1,118
44 New Hampshire 959
45 Washington 729
46 Puerto Rico 724
47 Utah 687
48 Oregon 597
49 Maine 587
50 Alaska 452
51 Vermont 397
52 Hawaii 339

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 5
2 California 4
3 Florida 2
4 Illinois 2
5 Maryland 2
6 New Jersey 2
7 New York 2
8 Rhode Island 2
9 Alabama 1
10 Connecticut 1
11 Georgia 1
12 Idaho 1
13 Kentucky 1
14 Maine 1
15 Massachusetts 1
16 Minnesota 1
17 North Carolina 1
18 Pennsylvania 1
19 Puerto Rico 1
20 South Carolina 1
21 South Dakota 1
22 Vermont 1
23 Virginia 1
24 West Virginia 1
25 Alaska 0
26 Arizona 0
27 Arkansas 0
28 Colorado 0
29 Delaware 0
30 District of Columbia 0
31 Hawaii 0
32 Indiana 0
33 Iowa 0
34 Kansas 0
35 Louisiana 0
36 Mississippi 0
37 Missouri 0
38 Montana 0
39 Nebraska 0
40 Nevada 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New Mexico 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Ohio 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 361,511 1 99
Crowley Colorado 360,007 2 99
Bent Colorado 273,265 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 248,982 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,726 184 94
Richland South Carolina 111,040 981 68
York South Carolina 109,699 1039 66
Orange California 85,129 2187 30
Pierce Washington 55,127 2866 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,565 1823 41
York South Carolina 1,342 2081 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,341 2083 33
Richland South Carolina 1,313 2113 32
Pierce Washington 719 2742 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons